Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 30.190451 33.669063 37.669000 42.678867 48.890803 56.490890 66.746870
2025-06-01 25.155691 29.485798 34.923347 42.495376 53.214355 68.680348 94.659279
2025-06-08 21.861619 26.516010 32.737929 42.129774 56.968774 81.922281 135.183198
2025-06-15 19.534775 24.296492 30.968734 41.705910 60.335872 96.545938 197.897488
2025-06-22 17.869430 22.676767 29.676917 41.573124 64.043195 114.538156 312.250074
2025-06-29 16.425107 21.154798 28.242700 40.807357 66.243592 131.356993 507.218378
2025-07-06 15.839555 20.797056 28.513700 43.006155 75.448442 178.153607 1826.643412
2025-07-13 14.859955 19.723068 27.458340 42.488428 78.309526 210.068501 14725.914298
2025-07-20 14.151535 18.993050 26.869190 42.738144 83.296759 263.360719 NaN
2025-07-27 13.556641 18.382222 26.398645 43.119294 88.954800 341.737445 NaN
2025-08-03 12.951558 17.700688 25.719292 42.909708 92.846372 432.047477 NaN
2025-08-10 12.383636 17.035040 24.995495 42.462490 95.857295 544.349624 NaN
2025-08-17 11.937614 16.550288 24.574516 42.692564 101.818624 791.718983 NaN
2025-08-24 11.472509 16.002065 23.982857 42.417388 105.923002 1152.104804 NaN
2025-08-31 11.035688 15.473587 23.380130 42.013679 109.465809 1785.568493 NaN
2025-09-07 10.633683 14.980041 22.801286 41.574962 112.788802 3146.049671 NaN
2025-09-14 10.295666 14.576980 22.364589 41.435602 117.704680 9207.896821 NaN
2025-09-21 9.924045 14.094603 21.731680 40.670918 119.051867 44353.176673 NaN
2025-09-28 9.850606 14.131445 22.142807 42.855942 139.472025 NaN NaN
2025-10-05 9.545479 13.737389 21.637027 42.340561 142.976342 NaN NaN
2025-10-12 9.324252 13.482934 21.402018 42.588570 152.477533 NaN NaN
2025-10-19 9.127218 13.261838 21.219238 42.967396 164.003426 NaN NaN
2025-10-26 8.898012 12.970743 20.865438 42.758972 170.876866 NaN NaN